Works in Progress

Working Paper. When do Autocratizing Incumbents Lose Elections? An Analysis of the Universe of Cases (with Marc Jacob)
Why do some autocratizing incumbents lose re-election while others remain in power? Existing research focuses on why voters continue to support anti-democratic leaders but offers little insight into when and why they are removed. We analyze 113 elections since 1990 in which an autocratizing incumbent sought re-election, combining large-N analysis, qualitative coding of the nature of autocratizing acts, and comparative case studies of Zambia and Poland. We find that incumbents who undermine vertical constraints are more likely to survive in office, while strong judicial oversight correlates with electoral defeat. Highly public and visible forms of autocratization increase the likelihood of removal, particularly after an episode of authoritarian consolidation. In both democratic and competitive authoritarian regimes, opposition mobilization plays a crucial role in organizing and reinforcing electoral backlash after an episode of autocratization. Our findings highlight the importance of regime context and opposition strategies in conditioning electoral responses to autocratization.


Working Paper. Partisanship, Party Systems, and Understandings of Democracy Across Africa
 Across Africa, people have varied understandings of what “democracy” is, with implications for democratic support, political participation, and willingness to resist democratic backsliding, along other outcomes. There has been an increasing focus on understanding the causes of variation in understandings of democracy, typically with a focus on individual-level socio-economic characteristics. At the same time, a growing body of literature examines how partisanship influences the way citizens perceive and react to democratic backsliding, showing how partisan biases can lead people to justify or excuse anti-democratic behaviors. Drawing on insights from these two bodies of literature, I argue that partisanship influences the ways that citizens understand democracy—specifically, whether they understand it in procedural or instrumental terms--but that this relationship depends on the nature of political competition within a country. Using cross-sectional survey data from the Afrobarometer, alongside data from the World Values Survey over time in Ghana and Zimbabwe, this study demonstrates ruling party partisans are more likely to understand democracy in instrumental terms, while opposition party partisans understand it in more procedural terms. This partisan gap in understandings of democracy is more pronounced in countries with higher levels of clientelism and lower levels of multiparty competition.

Working Paper. When Does Affective Polarization Lead to Democratic Decline?

In Progress. Transparency Reforms in Mineral-Exporting Countries: When do Leaders Tie their Hands?

Data Collection. The Green Energy Transition and the Politics of Resource Governance in Africa